SEV3 — ElevatedCLOSEDWeather✓ Corroborated · 4 sources4d ago

Severe Thunderstorm Warning — Raleigh

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is active for Raleigh, NC, a market with moderate contact-center and knowledge-worker density. However, this event is materially identical to an already-open declared incident for the same area.

Impact Summary

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is active for Raleigh, NC, a market with moderate contact-center and knowledge-worker density. However, this event is materially identical to an already-open declared incident for the same area.

Domain
Weather
Region
Raleigh-Durham, US, US
Opened By
watchkeeper
Jul 6, 2026, 09:30 PM UTC
Validated By
auto
Jul 6, 2026, 09:30 PM UTC
Event Cluster
2 events
OVIX Score
10.0
Closed
watchkeeper-auto(resolved)
Jul 8, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC

Timeline5

⚠
Incident openedby watchkeeperJul 6, 2026, 09:30 PM UTC
Declared from 1 signals. OVIX 10. News 3. BPO 2. Acute severe-weather floor (agents-028): authoritative short-fuse warning, declared at SEV3 regardless of resolved BPO footprint.
✓
Severity validatedby autoJul 6, 2026, 09:30 PM UTC
Auto-validated: SEV3 per policy.
✎
Note addedby watchkeeperJul 6, 2026, 09:30 PM UTC
External corroboration: corroborated (4 sources via Exa). hoodline.com, newsobserver.com, newspub.live, charlotteobserver.com
✎
Note addedby watchkeeperJul 6, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC
Merged new cluster (1 signals, OVIX 10) — same domain, active <24h.
✖
Incident closedby watchkeeperJul 8, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC
Auto-closed: no new material events within 36h for this incident.

Evidence / Why this?

Traced to source — read-onlyUpdated Jul 6, 09:30 PM UTC
Why declareddeclareHybrid
Incident declaration (deterministic floor + LLM relevance gate)v1
DECLARE when deterministicFloor AND (llm.declare OR acuteWeatherFloor) AND NOT aggregateTitle, and no open same-domain incident merges it. deterministicFloor = maxSeverity>=8 AND (newsScore>=1 OR bpoScore>=1 OR acuteWeatherFloor). acuteWeatherFloor = maxSeverity>=9 AND any signal is an acute severe-weather WARNING (tornado/severe-thunderstorm/flash-flood) — overrides the LLM footprint-based suppression. aggregateTitle (grab-bag "Multiple/Several/Various…") is refused (agents-019 §D). Asset-class deny (military/war-zone, WFM-37) suppresses earlier. cyberFloor disabled (agents-009 hotfix).
domain
weather
regions
["Raleigh"]
bpo score
2
news score
3
llm declare
no
max severity
10
signal count
1
llm rationale
Duplicate of the open incident 'Severe Thunderstorm Warning — Raleigh'; suppressed to avoid redundant escalation.
aggregate title
no
high confidence
yes
acute weather floor
yes
deterministic floor
yes
model claude-sonnet-4-6 · prompt watchkeeper-declare-2026-06
Why SEV3SEV3score 3Deterministic
Incident severity level (SEV1–SEV4) at declarationv1
Base: SEV2 if sev>=9 AND news>=2 AND bpo>=1; else SEV3 if sev>=8 AND (news>=1 OR bpo>=1); else SEV4. Acute severe-weather (agents-028): if sev>=9 floor to SEV3 (SEV2→SEV3); minor/transient watches+advisories drop SEV2/SEV3→SEV4. Single-event cap: any SEV2 caps to SEV3 absent sustained multi-day BPO-region corroboration (SEV2 promotion is human-gated via revalidation). score = numeric SEV (1=most severe … 4); SEV3/SEV4 auto-validate, SEV1/SEV2 require human validation.
domain
weather
bpo score
2
news score
3
persistent
no
max severity
10
auto validated
yes
acute weather floor
yes
Geo Provenance
Tierprecise
Sourcesignal_coords
Deterministic

Related Signals1

[Raleigh] weather 10.0 — Severe Thunderstorm Warningsentinel4d ago

External Corroboration

✓ Corroborated · 4 sourcesChecked Jul 6, 2026, 09:30 PM UTC
Severe Thunderstorm Warning in Central North Carolina↗hoodline.comJul 6, 2026, 12:12 PM UTCSevere thunderstorm warning for North Carolina Triangle | Raleigh News & Observer↗newsobserver.comJun 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTCSevere thunderstorm warning expires in central NC areas | News Pub↗newspub.liveJul 6, 2026, 01:20 AM UTCUPDATE: Severe thunderstorm warning issued for the Piedmont region Monday evening | Charlotte Observer↗charlotteobserver.comJun 22, 2026, 11:36 PM UTC

Affected Regions

Raleigh